Half - Life of JDE

gregglarkin

gregglarkin

Legendary Poster
Andy Klee thinks the half-life of JDE is 9 years? What do you think? Poll question below.
 
Surely nothing like that.

I would expect Oracle to continue this line of business for as long as there are paying customers.

ConFusion could (if ever released) become JDE's ugly sister, but I would never expect any such thing to lure JDE customers away.
 
You mean you don't want to implement the next major release of Oracle
E-Business suite? :)

I think eventually Oracle will get it right, and Fusion will attract JDE
customers. But every time I think about it, I keep pushing the date further
out. To Oracle's credit, one of the key people involved in Fusion is a VP
who is one of the smartest former JDE consultants I've ever met. So there's
hope.

Andy
 
Andy,

you may want to re-examine your numbers after you consider how many customers are still on World Software...........what's the 1/2 life of that one?

Colin
 
Re: RE: Half - Life of JDE

> So there's hope.

You mean threat? ;-)

One's no hope. I'd say it would take at least 10 such as the best one they have. And it all would still have to click in the end. No, I would not bet on that horse ;-)
 
Re: RE: Half - Life of JDE

I heard the same statement for World years back and its still there. so...
 
[ QUOTE ]
I would expect Oracle to continue this line of business for as long as there are paying customers.

ConFusion could (if ever released) become JDE's ugly sister, but I would never expect any such thing to lure JDE customers away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alex - I applaud your optimism, but I think JDE will eventually fade away if Oracle stops improving and maintaining it. Andy had posted in a previous link that he thinks they might sell of the maintenance to another company. Having lived through four years of third party support (TomorrowNow), I can tell you that this application does not do well if left untended. Especially if you are running it on Windows and SQL and have bolt on products like we do. It's not that the application itself was having issues, but all of the stuff it runs on and connects to does not live in a bubble. We change out hardware every three years and keep the OS and the databases patched to current levels. That gets hard to do when you have a critical app like JDE that you can't change and isn't certified with newer operating systems. If Oracle wants to wean customers off of JDE, all they have to do is stop supporting the infrastructure layer. In four or five years it would be dead as a doornail.

- Gregg
 
Greg,

I voted - but you needed to define what we were voting on better. What did you or Andy mean by "half-life"?

I believe that a product becomes a "legacy" product when its no longer being actively marketed/promoted and substantially enhanced. If this is what you are referring to by 1/2 life, then yes, I think EnterpriseOne is soon to enter the long twilight of support releases with only minor "enhancements" and minor bug fixes.

The writing is on the wall.

That being said we here will probably wring 5-10 years of life out of our E1 9.x release before we need to look elsewhere. That is if Oracle's maintenance costs don't force to look elsewhere sooner (they are getting rather exorbitant).
 
Be more open minded when you talk about a software that has been around for nearly 40 years and still as strong and valued (and much much improved tod ay) today as it was when it was first introduced to the world!!

It will endure another 40 years under the excellent stewardship of Oracle!!

Keep the faith as JDE will love forever on every continent!!!!
 
"Nucular"?! Andy!




In a message dated 8/26/2009 12:55:12 P.M. Mountain Daylight Time,
[email protected] writes:

Half-life is a term from my days as a nucular physicist. If the half life
of JDE is 6 years, that means after 6 years 50% of the clients will be
gone,
after 6 more years another 50% of those remaining are gone, so that would
leave 25% of the original number. After 18 years we'd be down to 12 1/2%.
Etc.

Andy
 
Oracle is going the way Computer Associate(CA) went a decade ago when they started acquiring products developed in the Mainframe space. This is all a bout market share and the keeping the customer base. We will see these pro duct for years to come although with the same grapevines of today.



Software companies in the past have always tried to armtwist customer to to e their line=2C but from my experience I have always seen clients winning a fter all they are the king. Technology is a commodity as replacable as anyt hing else in the world. Microsoft understands it now=2C so does Oracle. W e should thank Google and Sun and armies of Software developers around the world



Having said this=2C I do have a real concern and that is Oracle's silence t o Dynamics or MySAP. What is going on there?











To: [email protected]
From: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Half - Life of JDE
Date: Wed=2C 26 Aug 2009 12:26:33 -0500



Quote:


I would expect Oracle to continue this line of business for as long as ther e are paying customers.

ConFusion could (if ever released) become JDE's ugly sister=2C but I would never expect any such thing to lure JDE customers away.





Alex - I applaud your optimism=2C but I think JDE will eventually fade away if Oracle stops improving and maintaining it. Andy had posted in a previou s link that he thinks they might sell of the maintenance to another company . Having lived through four years of third party support (TomorrowNow)=2C I can tell you that this application does not do well if left untended. Espe cially if you are running it on Windows and SQL and have bolt on products l ike we do. It's not that the application itself was having issues=2C but al l of the stuff it runs on and connects to does not live in a bubble. We cha nge out hardware every three years and keep the OS and the databases patche d to current levels. That gets hard to do when you have a critical app like JDE that you can't change and isn't certified with newer operating systems . If Oracle wants to wean customers off of JDE=2C all they have to do is st op supporting the infrastructure layer. In four or five years it would be d ead as a doornail.

- Gregg
Production: XE=2C Update 6=2C SP23V=2C Win 2K3=2C SQL 2K=2C Websphere 6=2C XPI 4.7=2C Citrix 3.0=2C Full Fusion Middleware Suite Development: 8.12=2C Update 2=2C 8.98=2C OAS 10.1.3.3=2C SQL 2003
 
[ QUOTE ]
...I think JDE will eventually fade away if Oracle stops improving and maintaining it....

[/ QUOTE ]

Oracle hasn't shown any sign of "stopping improving or maintaining it". Oracle already has 9.1 scheduled for release in 2010, along with 8.99 toolset at the same time. I wouldn't be surprised by next Collaborate, we'll hear of 9.2's release schedule, and whatever tools release version numbering they'll come up with past 8.99 (8.9a ????perhaps 9.1 or 9.2?).

Why do you think Oracle might stop improving/maintaining EnterpriseOne ?
 
Re: RE: Half - Life of JDE

[ QUOTE ]
Oracle is going the way Computer Associate(CA) went a decade ago when they started acquiring products developed in the Mainframe space. This is all a bout market share and the keeping the customer base.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a huge difference between the way CA worked and the way Oracle's acquisitions are working.

CA went after smaller software vendors - and continued to try and support the products after they had paid off the development staff (who left) - ending up with most of the products becoming "frozen" and very quickly being overtaken by new technologies appearing (like the changes in OS and Network systems !)

Oracle is taking over larger companies, and ensuring that the developers continue to be employed - safeguarding the products potential for growth and increased functionality. Look at JDE for an example, almost all the core technical developers are still working at Oracle/JDE, and since they took over Peoplesoft/JDE - there have been at least 3 major new releases of the software (and a bunch of tools releases) - each adding new functionality both technically as well as in the apps themselves.

Oracle is also committed to "tying together" the products - so there is a long-term strategy to ensure the future of their product line. Unlike CA, which continued to have their purchased product lines run independently of each other, Oracle is making sure that their products can communicate with one another AND supports their underlying technology products (database, middleware and application server technology).

Oracle has made some interesting decisions - but look carefully at their product portfolio now, and you can see that there is an underlying strategy to ensure that they completely own the business software market. The company is now one of the most diversified software companies out there - but they have concentrated on acquiring companies that support medium to large business.
 
RE: RE: Half - Life of JDE

How about we compromise and call it "radioactive half life"? But you have
to remember, I graduated from the George Bush School of Nucular Physics. So
who knows?

As far as all the posts supporting JDE living forever, let's be practical.
Oracle will slowly kill off JDE, PeopleSoft, Siebel, etc., as soon as there
is enough functionality in the Fusion apps to convince major clients of
those product lines to make the move to Fusion. If it doesn't happen
quickly enough, Oracle will figure out ways to "encourage" that to happen
more quickly.

If you are 45 and over, you probably don't have a lot to worry about--I
think it will take 15-20 years for this to occur. But, I have heard from
reliable sources that in some geographies, Oracle sales people are trying to
sell Oracle's E-Business Suite to existing JDE clients. Tacky, if you ask
me.

I've had a great 20 year career with JD Edwards, and I've always thought the
software was the best--great functionality without a ton of complexity or
rigidity. But I don't think it will continue unabated for another 35 years.

Just my opinion, and everyone's opinion is just as valid. The proof is in
the numbers, but unfortunately, Oracle doesn't release enough data so we can
verify whether or not the JDE client base is declining. My opinion is that
the number of clients worldwide is declining.

Andy
 
Re: RE: Half - Life of JDE

[ QUOTE ]
>I think eventually Oracle will get it right, and Fusion will attract JDE customers. But every time I think about it, I keep pushing the date further out. To Oracle's credit, one of the key people involved in Fusion is a VP who is one of the smartest former JDE consultants I've ever met.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy, I think you don't fully understand the direction that Oracle is moving towards. For some reason, you're still under the assumption that Oracle is going to be creating a "be all/end all" single application called "fusion" and that it will replace eBusiness, EnterpriseOne, World and Peoplesoft enterprise.

Certainly Oracle might have initially claimed this back when they bought peoplesoft in 2003 through 2005 - but the reality is very, very different. Talk with your VP Buddy - certainly Oracle is going to have SOME apps that work directly on Fusion - but why re-invent the wheel ? Why continually take over companies products, when they could just write competing products using Fusion ? I mean, c'mon - they could practically give away Fusion Applications for FREE if they really wanted to get customers - it'll end up being a LOT cheaper, and will ensure customers jump onto Oracle technology (and they wouldn't have to interface all those other tedious systems !!!)

So, let me peer into my crystal ball and, based on what has been happening for the past few years, tell you my opinion of what is going to happen.

First of all, I see JDE products still available in 10 years. I don't see "half the current user base" nor do I see JDE/Peoplesoft or ebiz customers "flocking" to some new mysterious Oracle product. What I see is Oracle having a piece of middleware in the market that truly allows communication through adapters between various products - products they both own, as well as external products like SAP. I see new functionality being written as Oracle Fusion Applications - but I don't fully see a single, standalone general ledger or distribution module, let alone Manufacturing or HR.

I don't even see Peoplesoft Enterprise merging into Oracle - purely because Peoplesoft will continue to be a very good standalone HR/Payroll product. It will interface very closely with Oracle e-Business suite - and I see R13, R14 and maybe even R15 of Oracle e-Bus coming out. Oracle will market Ebusiness Suite connected to Peoplesoft Enterprise through Oracle Fusion as a single solution to larger, bigger customers - and, if they balk at the cost, will show EnterpriseOne to smaller, mid-sized customer base.

I see Primavera, Siebel and JDE continuing to be separate products - but interfaced much more closely with Oracle Fusion Technologies. I see Oracle Business Intelligence Enterprise Edition being able to reach into all of the individual products, a standardized technology foundation based on Oracle products - and more of a push for a true Service Oriented Architecture.

I see SAP customers coming to the end of their product lifecycle, and I see some of them considering a switch to Oracle for the technical support. I see Oracle aggressively marketing products to SAP customers - practically "giving away" ERP solutions to get customers signed up for Fusion Middleware, OBIEE, Database and Application Server products.

I see the maintenance arm of Oracle becoming the future of oracles long-term revenue stream.

I see Oracles technologies being the core future of their long-term softare revenue stream, as opposed to the applications. I see SAP suffering long-term as they cannot compete by reducing the price of their product.

I see Oracle Consulting go through another wave of building up, just to come crashing down when it cannot sustain the rates in the marketplace (I think the marketplace rates have been permanently damaged by offshore companies - partly due to Oracle practices). I see Big-4 becoming Big-6 again - but with at least two of the Big-6 being Indian or Chinese based.

Do I see a JDE halflife ? No. There wasn't an option in the above poll for "JDE will continue with the same or greater customer base over the next 10 years" - so I didn't choose an option.

Just my 2c !
 
RE: RE: Half - Life of JDE

I disagree, Jon. Why would they continue to write Fusion apps if they aren't
going to try to continue to build it out far enough so that JDE, Peoplesoft,
Siebel customers will jump on board eventually. As you say, they started in
this direction back when they acquired PeopleSoft and JDE in 2005. But then
they realized that it would take many years to write a completely new ERP
suite, so they came up with their current strategy of adapters and
supporting the individual product lines indefinitely. But that doesn't mean
forever, and when Fusion is built out enough, they will start announcing
some deadlines to get off those product lines.

Fusion financials are due out in 2010. I guess we'll get an idea at that
point if Oracle is really building a separate ERP suite or not, and if it
takes into account the requirements of PeopleSoft, JD Edwards, and Oracle
clients.

But then, who wants to migrate to Oracle E-Business Suite, er Fusion,
anyway?

I do agree with you that Oracle's bread and butter is the middleware and
database products. Apps account for only 20% of Oracle's revenue.
Maintenance on the 'legacy' apps is a big chunk of Oracle's profitability.

Right back at you with my two cents.

Andy
 
Re: RE: RE: Half - Life of JDE

[ QUOTE ]
I do agree with you that Oracle's bread and butter is the middleware and database products. Apps account for only 20% of Oracle's revenue. Maintenance on the 'legacy' apps is a big chunk of Oracle's profitability.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jon,

Have you tried working with the Fusion Muddleware adapters yet? We bought them as a replacement for our aging copy of webmethods. So far we have completed one whole project with Fusion adapters. The other 250 interfaces (no, I'm not exagerating) are still on webmethods. The current version of Fusion muddleware is still kludgy at best. We have put all of the Fusion muddleware development on hold until at least the middle of 2010 pending Fusion Muddleware 11G (I think that's the one they're holding out for). We have some exceptionally bright middleware developers who have been working extensively with Oracle development, they have a pretty low opinion of the current product.

I do think your prognostication is correct, I think we will see a blend of the various apps through middleware, but I also wouldn't bet against Andy. Over time JDE will fade away. It will be interesting to how this all plays out.
 
Oracle lives in a different era compared to CA. Backward compatibility was assured by IBM platform(most of the CA products are mainframe =2C legacy b ased) so the need to maitain CA product were very minimal. That does not me an they do not have team that maintains Easytrieve.



I was talking about the conceptual similarities rather functional differenc es.



I am sure JDE would live longer and better under Oracle=2C although I have my doubts about this whole Fusion thing. I won't be suprised=2C if Fusion t urns out to be Oracle's EAI managing a bunch of adapter under a sleek GUI.


To: [email protected]
From: [email protected]
Subject: Re: RE: Half - Life of JDE
Date: Wed=2C 26 Aug 2009 14:39:09 -0500


Quote:


Oracle is going the way Computer Associate(CA) went a decade ago when they started acquiring products developed in the Mainframe space. This is all a bout market share and the keeping the customer base.





There is a huge difference between the way CA worked and the way Oracle's a cquisitions are working.

CA went after smaller software vendors - and continued to try and support t he products after they had paid off the development staff (who left) - endi ng up with most of the products becoming "frozen" and very quickly being ov ertaken by new technologies appearing (like the changes in OS and Network s ystems !)

Oracle is taking over larger companies=2C and ensuring that the developers continue to be employed - safeguarding the products potential for growth an d increased functionality. Look at JDE for an example=2C almost all the cor e technical developers are still working at Oracle/JDE=2C and since they to ok over Peoplesoft/JDE - there have been at least 3 major new releases of t he software (and a bunch of tools releases) - each adding new functionality both technically as well as in the apps themselves.

Oracle is also committed to "tying together" the products - so there is a l ong-term strategy to ensure the future of their product line. Unlike CA=2C which continued to have their purchased product lines run independently of each other=2C Oracle is making sure that their products can communicate wit h one another AND supports their underlying technology products (database =2C middleware and application server technology).

Oracle has made some interesting decisions - but look carefully at their pr oduct portfolio now=2C and you can see that there is an underlying strategy to ensure that they completely own the business software market. The compa ny is now one of the most diversified software companies out there - but th ey have concentrated on acquiring companies that support medium to large bu siness.
Jon Steel EnterpriseOne Technical Specialist erpSOURCING LLC http://www.erp sourcing.com [email protected] 24/7 Assistance - (904) 382 5701
 
Re: RE: RE: Half - Life of JDE

[ QUOTE ]
....but I also wouldn't bet against Andy. Over time JDE will fade away. It will be interesting to how this all plays out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell you what. I'll put my money where my mouth is. I'll bet $500 if EnterpriseOne is still a _marketed_ product in 2019 versus $500 from Greg and $500 from Andy. We'll start a pool. If you're in, we'll get someone to hold the bet.

By the way, if Oracle changes the NAME of the product, that doesn't mean the product is dead - I'm betting that the underlying architecture will still exist - ie, a product that is based on CNC technologies (OCM, OL, datasources, etc).

We should put together a "pool" - $500 per ticket one way or another, and whoever wins in 2019 wins a share of the winning side...place it in a CD, and that'll be quite a bit of cash to share !

I have a bit of a head start, because we already know that Xe is still supported until 2013 legally - but we don't know what might happen 6 years afterwards !

Who is interested ?
 
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